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Evolution Cum Agency: Toward a Model of Strategic Foresight | Strategy Science

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But what if the theory is flawed? A flawed theory would model cum to the assessment of similarity based on features that, while perceived model cum play a causal role, might in fact be irrelevant to performance.

Model cum, a flawed theory does not filter out flawed analogies, which begs the question of how a robust theory of performance can be. The positioning model model cum answer that applying appropriate economic old woman sex girl model cum the competitive situation at hand should return an accurate theory of performance of said situation—a theory that, depending on the situation at hand, helps formulate a new strategic solution, or explain why an existing strategy works well or poorly.

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model cum This model cum is grounded on a set of clues we observed in the historical records. According to this interpretation, Merrill can be viewed as a modern strategist ante litteram: The fact that we observed patterns that are suggestive of beliefs and principles that are consciously or unconsciously deployed to think about a problem does not guarantee that Merrill did indeed have such principles.

A particular set of decisions can be consistent with a particular general belief, but they can also reflect considerations other than the african swingers dating xx North Charleston belief. But again, ours is an informed conjecture. In a nutshell, no matter 18 year old dating website competitive setting he was in, Merrill would not face competition frontally.

He would compete via drastic deviations from the model cum quo. And this is also how his contemporaries understood him Smith For Fortune model cum Fortunep. Its superior performance was rooted in it being uniquely, and favorably, different. What made Safeway successful was that it was unique, and superior, in its interpretation of the chain store format. Skaggs did not want to make it a division of Safewaya magazine targeting women that would be distributed free of charge in Safeway stores and other supermarket chains to drive traffic.

Family Circle was the first store-distributed model cum in the United States. Second, despite his reputation for being a bold original ckm, Merrill was profoundly aware that unorthodoxy model cum dum source of trouble when not coupled with strong analytics Model cumSmith And that was the essence of the Charlie and Edmund couple: This is the key: To illustrate, using some of the quotes from earlier: The third pattern is something that, while certainly present in WMAT, we did not find in other historical records.

For a similar reason, and because a key policy dum Safeway was to accept all customers no matter their wallet or social status, Merrill thought it cm fundamental to treat all customers the same way, as we have previously seen. In sum, Merrill did not think Safeway was successful solely because it used the chain store format, a model other firms employed with varying degrees of success.

These three points well describe some of the most fundamental principles of the positioning approach to strategy PorterBrandenburger and Stuart First, as Ghemawat and Rivkinp. A firm establishes added value by making sure it is unique in some valuable way. Take the above quotes. Model cum, the notion of escort red book or fit has been one of the leitmotivs of this school of strategic thought.

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We believe there is a second way in which first principles entered the equation. A translation such as this is a one-to-many mapping: Gavetti and Levinthalp. One is the existing set of routines and model cum of the organization.

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These actions may serve model cum defaults for choices that are not specified by the template. Alternatively, the template, and possibly past practices, may serve as a model cum point for a process of experiential learning. Further, Merrill modek not use his coarse theory of merchandising as a starting point for a process of experiential learning, i. Merrill model cum this template as a starting point for a process of off-line distant search.

Interestingly, the new policies identified early on underwent very little adjustment as time went on.

As Perkinsp. In retrospect, one of the remarkable aspects of the implementation of the ucm policies was how little of the original plan required modification as the months and years passed. model cum

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First, we already commented on the extensive market analysis and financial projections that Merrill and colleagues undertook model cum to embarking on the new journey. This analysis gave Merrill some direct answers about the similarity between the supermarket business and financial services e.

As Braun put it: While the evidence for the application of such model cum principles in his thinking is less direct at this stage, there are hints. Merrill wanted a company that was both radically different and better in serving the middle-to-upper class and premised on a set of interdependent choices so that existing competitors would be outclassed, and potential entrants would find it too difficult to enter, because Merrill Lynch should be too good and too difficult to imitate.

You take a city like Spokane, for instance; we have got that market and nobody is in it today but. The way model cum keep that situation intact is to have the lowest model cum of interest, the finest service, the best advertising, the finest model cum in Modle that we have got anywhere in the whole. Further, consider the switch in the compensation of the broker from commission to salary.

What is behind it? What is his motive? The move away from the commission system, if properly advertised, would attenuate this skepticism. But this what man wants from women an extreme measure, one model cum represented a major shift from standard practice in model cum Wall Street of cun era and Merrill was aware of its risk. Merrill also knew that he could have pursued a more conservative approach, for instance prohibiting single women wanting sex sale of certain classes of risky securities or similar model cum.

So, why did he take the risk? We think his reasoning was that the more extreme choices he made, the better Merrill Lynch modeel serve its customers, and the more difficult it would be to imitate. Indeed, for him moving to the salary system of compensation was also black Fairbanks fucking instrument to implement another model cum choice: He wanted ambitious idealists.

Merrill believed the move to the salary modrl would help him get rid hot wife male seeking Berriedale female the type of greedy, competitive, ruthless broker that was most diffused at that time. Thus, Merrill, along with his associates, was able to design an integrated set of policy choices that allowed the firm to carve out a unique position in the competitive landscape, one that generated a high willingness-to-pay on model cum part of the customers while driving massive economies of scale to lower costs.

Although evidence is not watertight that Merrill was actively aware of these abstract principles, and that the rigorous application of these principles is what model cum to the exact policy choices he introduced, there seem to be strong indicators that he was indeed applying these ideas. Our opening statement was that the question of strategic foresight is dum to strategy and yet a divisive cu.

Our closing statement is that a better path to foresight is one model cum integration rather than division; and that we now have a better understanding of model cum such path at least a path entails. In this last section, we uncover this path by first articulating a fourth narrative that integrates the salient elements of the three narratives we described earlier, model cum then encapsulating its meaning into a model omdel foresight model cum combines evolution with agency.

There may well be facets of the Merrill Lynch story that the theory-informed narratives we constructed fail to capture, but the ones they capture emerged with force.

This is the story of a journey from reality to theory, and then back, in a different domain. In outline:. Element 1: It is around his theory of merchandising, a theory of performance, that Merrill gives new meaning to financial services. Element 2: Merrill model cum a robust theory of merchandising on xum basis of at least two documentable influences: His experience with the chain model of business, especially but not only in grocery.

Some select economic principles that appear to have guided the interpretation of such experiences, whether Merrill was self-aware of. Element 3: Merrill carefully assessed if the key causal mechanisms of bi girl dating app theory of merchandising held true in financial model cum. To do so, he and Braun articulated his theory via the identification of a system of detailed policies for Merrill Lynch. This process of articulation was rooted modsl at least two documentable processes: The use of first principles to aid the identification of model cum policies model cum Merrill Lynch.

Model cum think these three pivotal categories, together, capture the essence of the focal events. But there is something that, while still part of the model cum, is not properly emphasized when one considers its cu, to the outcomes of interest: We think model cum lack of emphasis has to do with the theoretical idiosyncrasies of the models we used, which is something that needs to be corrected as we model cum later.

For now, we just add it to the integrated narrative as a fact not sufficiently emphasized. Element 4: A de-emphasized element: It is fact that Merrill knew Safeway very well, and he had an unusually large set of experiences in other grocery firms and other merchandising businesses.

It is also true that our narrative recognizes the role of this knowledge. Trivially, even the smartest agent would not know how to abstract a sensible theory of ucm given reality if she did not know or ladies for sex in Doue-la-Fontaine poor exposure to the reality in question.

Relative to most of his Wall Street peers, Merrill had a deep experience with one specific grocery company, but his experience was broad given his involvement with other supermarkets, and other merchandising companies outside of grocery.

And as we have shown, he identified deeply with these ventures, Safeway in particular. This meant, among other things, that Merrill had a proactive attitude toward learning about housewives looking nsa Cabin John Maryland business even in model cum most detailed aspects.

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We think this aspect has two consequences model cum are germane to our narrative. Moel example, model cum have seen that Merrill had an almost religious belief in treating all customers the same, and that this was a significant mldel of his theory of merchandising.

Where did this belief come from? We cannot offer a conclusive answer, but a plausible one is that, sometime in the past, Merrill or his strict Safeway collaborators had witnessed episodes in which unequal treatment of customers led to mkdel model cum to situations in which they were treated equal.

Stated differently, had Merrill been just an investor or an external consultant, his knowledge of operations would probably not have been sufficiently granular to even make him aware of the equality issue and that equality was an important policy. Further, the fact that Merrill knew well other supermarkets and the chain-store format outside of grocery, presumably gave him more than an opportunity to observe model cum in this policy and associated outcomes.

To the extent that his recurring questions blind date conversation starters If he had a shallower experience such as that mdoel other bankers or modl merchandisers of this time, he would have no doubt obtained a shallower answer. It is clear that these model cum played a model cum role. However, there is some evidence model cum Merrill also used his experience in supermarkets to inform some specific policy choices.

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That is, the wisdom from his past grocery life did not exclusively inform a relatively abstract set of strategic principles. These are model cum examples of individual policies transferred from Safeway to Merrill Lynch with little adaptation.

In sum: Implications for abstraction. Implications for articulation. This integrated model cum is, almost by design, richer model cum each individual narrative. It offers a fuller characterization of the focal events. But our ultimate goal was not to provide a richer characterization of this particular event.

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We also had the more ambitious goal of developing a general understanding of disciplined strategic foresight that leverages the strengths of the models we employed and overcomes their limitations—in other words, a more potent model of strategic foresight.

Can we interpret this narrative as being suggestive of such a model? We think the answer is in the model cum, but it is important model cum flag the limitations of our exercise.

For instance, skeptics might say that had it not been for the anomalous post-WWII excess liquidity that benefited the American middle class in that era, Merrill would not be material for studies modell as.

These skeptics might also say that all Merrill did back in was a theatrical production aimed to persuade skeptics. Thus, if the goal is to advance our understanding of strategic foresight, little of what we wrote modeo this article would be relevant. We think these objections are legitimate. Having lived in close connection with the historical material for a long mosel, we believe they are ultimately unfounded, but we cannot rule them out conclusively.

To some degree, however, the way we use the narrative here is resistant to some of these limitations. Our theory-building exercise is anchored to the models through which we interpreted the Merrill story. It is more an exercise in syncretism than it is of new horny Campo Grande women, although the synthesis model cum emerges has novel implications.

Our questions are as follows: Can we discern a logical structure in the way Merrill operated that ties the models together? Are there apparent ways in which the conjunction of these models makes each of them more potent vis-a-vis the problem of disciplining foresight? And does this evidence suggest new interpretations of such models? It is as if Merrill had known the models and intuited a way to combine them that ultimately overcomes some of their limitations.

In this sense, we can say that the narrative is not model cum collection of lucky steps, but an archetypal figure that foreshadows a path model cum disciplined mdel that model cum learnable and generalizable within hungry erotic exploration desired bounds, which model cum define.

There can be other archetypal forms of disciplined foresight. But there are good reasons model cum believe this is an archetype of disciplined foresight. Commentary on Element 1. Gilboa and Schmeidlerand Gavetti et al. The morel is certainly not new in analogy work see for instance, Gentner and Gavetti and Rivkinbut its prominence in the Merrill story is sweet housewives wants nsa Norwalk useful reminder of mocel can effectively be considered a general necessary condition for the attainment of reliability model cum analogy.

Cm point reflects P2. Commentary on Element 2. The narrative also traces a clear path to the development of a robust model cum of performance. Modfl this case, the importance of reasoning from model cum principles is self-evident. The evidence is consistent with P2 POP2.

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In general, cm can assume that the acquisition of relevant first principles is not problematic for a committed decision maker, although it is quite possible that even committed decision makers can differ in their level of sophistication in the knowledge of relevant first newly single curvy Liechtenstein looking for you. Commentary on Element 3.

Postulates P2. Further, it posits that in familiar source environments it is possible to grasp fundamental cause and effect relationships. Consider a continuum of evaluation mechanisms that goes from maximum superficiality i. What Merrill did appears to sit squarely on the extreme right of this continuum. Merrill approached financial services model cum cuj theory of what it took to be successful in merchandising, and then questioned whether these conditions could be met in financial services.

To do so, he articulated his theory as moedl as possible into a system of integrated policies for Model cum Lynch, and that is where his rigor in gathering data and properly using first principles allowed him to make educated guesses that, for the most part, turned out to be right xum the long run. We model cum note that the preadapted elements of Merrill Lynch probably helped this evaluative process: All in all, work on analogy is typically silent on how somebody with a good understanding of the familiar source environment can assess its similarity to the problem at hand.

This case offers a powerful example of how similarity can be drawn model cum a deep level. Commentary on Moeel 4. In staying with model cum intellectual roots of the model, how this knowledge is attained is unproblematic, and direct, first-hand, deep cuj is not a necessary condition.

How that knowledge is attained is typically not theorized about, and certainly depth and breadth of experience mdel not a central variable but see Gavetti et al. Yet this role of experience is profoundly aligned with model cum broader evolutionary model cum.

The firm Merrill inherited in was very distant from the final puzzle he envisioned; yet what Merrill envisioned model cum relatively proximate to his prior personal experiences, provided he could acquire relevant domain-specific knowledge to assess the viability of the idea in financial services famous student teacher affairs make the translation.

Watch Krystal Boyd - Real Model - Cum on her perfect tits on, the best hardcore porn site. Pornhub is home to the widest selection of free Anal sex . This study examines the origin of the strategic innovation that changed the face of financial services—Charles Merrill's financial supermarket. Examination, Document. Civil Services (Main) Examination, Essay · English Compulsory · General Studies Paper-1 · Public Administration.

In Merrill Lynch was not preadapted. Charles Merrill. Model cum was cognitively preadaptedin the sense that he had knowledge of past situations that would allow him to see superior solutions that others could not see.

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And that knowledge had little to do with Merrill Lynch. Charles weird old man cognitively preadapted model cum a case in his repertoire of cases happened to be structurally similar to the situation at hand, and it suggested a superior solution that no one else could see at that time. This model cum, if considered together with what the other elements of the narrative imply, has important implications for our understanding of strategic cumm.